No Small-Town Poll

Abstract

Content-coded network newscasts were used to determine the importance of news coverage to the poll standings of leading candidates in the 1992 New Hampshire Democratic Primary. It was found that “horse-race” coverage mattered much more than reporting on more substantive matters, such as a candidate's capacity to be president. This was particularly true for Bill Clinton, who suffered an “antibandwagon” effect from the predominantly negative coverage he received. The findings here raise questions about whether there really is anything special about the New Hampshire primary. The state's 1992 Democratic primary differed little from the television-dominated contests seen elsewhere in American electoral politics.