The Family Consequences of Terrorism: The Effects of the Tokyo Subway Sarin Attack on Marital Formation and Dissolution

Abstract

Research on the effects of disruptive events on family-related decision making provides competing predictions with different channels, and the available evidence is mixed. This study focuses on the Tokyo subway sarin attack in 1995, the most disastrous terrorist attack in modern Japanese history. The findings indicate that in the years following the sarin attack, marriage and divorce rates decreased in areas served by the affected subway lines relative to areas not served by them within the Tokyo metropolis. The effects do not appear to be driven by a change in population compositions. The negative effects of the sarin attack on marriage and divorce are weaker in areas with higher social welfare expenditures. The findings are consistent with the perspective that the sarin attack triggered perceived uncertainty, such that people adhered to their status quo; with the availability of social welfare, they perceived the impact as less pervasive.