Al Qaeda, the Organization: A Five-Year Forecast

Abstract

Al Qaeda today is a resilient organization, as evidenced by the London attacks of 2005, its resurgence in Pakistan, the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, and its influence on the war in Iraq. While al Qaeda is not strong enough to launch an attack inside the United States in the next five years, it will continue to train militants for successful attacks in Europe. Al Qaeda's leadership is likely to remain in place for years, and it is unlikely to lose its safe haven on the Afghan-Pakistan border in the near term, although it has suffered real reverses in Iraq. Al Qaeda and its affiliated groups will, in the long term, implode because of their unrestrained violence against fellow Muslims and lack of a real plan for governance, both of which make it difficult for them to transform into a genuine, political mass movement.