The Future of Economic Activity

Abstract

To form expectations about the future, one must ask what has been happening and what will continue. Economic growth, technological development and the idea of material progress are many centuries old; they will not be reversed within a few decades, unless extraordinarily com pelling new forces emerge. Neo-Malthusian arguments, pos tulating imminent "overshoot" of limits—environmental, agri cultural and resource—are unpersuasive. Nevertheless, there is an urgent need to improve feedback mechanisms, so that appropriate and timely adjustments can be made before such limits are approached. The controversy over the future of economic activity will probably rage on, although both the unlimited growth and equilibrium scenarios, currently being debated, are utopian. More realistically, competent manage ment of a world increasingly affluent and reliant on technology may bring about limited but tangible progress, while misman agement or misfortune may result in disasters.