Presidential Decision Making and Opinion Polls

Abstract

During the first 29 months of the Reagan administration the president's long-time pollster, Richard Wirthlin, met with Ronald Reagan more than 25 times to discuss politics and polls, and he delivered memoranda on the results of over 40 public opinion studies to the president's top three aides: Jim Baker, Mike Deaver, and Ed Meese. This is indicative of the ascendancy during the era of the modern presidency of opinion polls in the process that presidents must follow to establish a public agenda and build coalitions to secure support. A number of methodological, technological, political, and management factors have contributed to the rise of opinion polls in presidential decision making, to the point that they are omnipresent in this process. Decisions relating to federalism, the gender gap, fairness, unemployment, and deployment of intermediate nuclear forces in Western Europe have been affected by polls from various sources. The evidence generated indicates that opinion polls are probably more important after a presidential election than before it.