Exploring the Future: A 200-Year Record of Expanding Competence

Abstract

The contemporary study of the future evolved from several directions: science, technology, military and business interests, sociology, history, and a literary tradition. Futurists may be working in a variety of organizations and situations, but they share beliefs in society's ability to explore, and take responsibility for influencing, the future. Lack of imagination and unexamined assumptions often cause forecast failure. Agreement and disagreement between several futurists is explored in this article, with the warning that pushing to achieve consensus on the future may mislead in times of rapid change. Finally, several key trends for the future of the world, and of the United States, are outlined.