Racial Population Projections and Reactions to Alternative News Accounts of Growing Diversity

Abstract

Projections of changes in racial demographics depend on how race is classified. The U.S. Census Bureau makes several different projections of the nation’s racial demographic future, but the most publicized version projects our racial future in a way that narrows the definition of race groups to exclude people who are of mixed race or Hispanic. This definition results in projections of many fewer “whites,” accelerating the impending decline of the country’s white majority and perhaps heightening white audiences’ anxiety about demographic change. We conducted an experiment that randomly assigned whites to read alternative news stories based on 2014 Census Bureau projections. One story emphasized growing diversity, a second emphasized the decline of the white population to minority status, and a third described an enduring white majority based on intermarriage and inclusive white identity. Much higher levels of anxiety or anger, especially among Republicans, were recorded after reading the white minority story than the alternative stories of diversity or an enduring white majority.