Affiliation:
1. Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
2. Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE), at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Abstract
This study examines Brazil's foreign policy towards China, focusing on the extreme-right presidency of Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022). Based on original and systematic quantitative data, we investigate the drivers behind policy variation and their implications for Brazil–China relations. Using measures of voting and speech convergence at the United Nations, legal agreements with China, and trade and investment, our data covers the period from 1995 to 2022. We then explore the concept of asymmetry and consider the asymmetric relationship between Brazil and China using CINC scores. Our empirical analysis indicates that Brazil's foreign policy stance towards China did change under Bolsonaro. However, this shift did not disrupt the broader relationship due to the pre-existing partnership and widening asymmetry between the two countries. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of Brazil–China relations and of Beijing's relations with other middle powers.