Predicting mobile apps spread: An epidemiological random network modeling approach

Author:

Alegre-Sanahuja Juan1,Cortés Juan-Carlos1,Villanueva Rafael-Jacinto1,Santonja Francisco-José2

Affiliation:

1. Instituto de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de Valéncia, Valencia, Spain

2. Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universitat de Valéncia, Valencia, Spain

Abstract

The mobile applications business is a really big market, growing constantly. In app marketing, a key issue is to predict future app installations. The influence of the peers seems to be very relevant when downloading apps. Therefore, the study of the evolution of mobile apps spread may be approached using a proper network model that considers the influence of peers. Influence of peers and other social contagions have been successfully described using models of epidemiological type. Hence, in this paper we propose an epidemiological random network model with realistic parameters to predict the evolution of downloads of apps. With this model, we are able to predict the behavior of an app in the market in the short term looking at its evolution in the early days of its launch. The numerical results provided by the proposed network are compared with data from real apps. This comparison shows that predictions improve as the model is fed back. Marketing researchers and strategy business managers can benefit from the proposed model since it can be helpful to predict app behavior over the time anticipating the spread of an app.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design,Modeling and Simulation,Software

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