Using sensitivity analysis to simplify ecosystem models: a case study

Author:

Rose Michael R.1,Harmsen R.2

Affiliation:

1. Population and Developmental Biology Group University of Sussex Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QG, England

2. Biology Department Queen's University Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6

Abstract

Theoretical ecology requires simulation because real istic ecosystem models are too complex for mathemati cal analysis. In this paper we propose a way of moving from a complex simulation model based on the "mechanics" of an ecosystem to a much simpler model that exhibits behaviour similar to that of the origi nal model in its major features. The tool used to isolate the key characteristics of the original model is sensitivity analysis. It enables the investigator to identify the variables and parameters that deter mine the essential behaviour of the original model and to formulate a clear picture of that behaviour. With this information in hand, the investigator can devise a simplified model that exhibits the same essential behaviour. While the simplified model behaves like the original model, its inner workings only generally parallel those of the original. Its simplicity allows the investigator to test his intuitive ideas directly, clarifying understanding of the ecosystem originally modelled. Further, the investigator may be able to adapt the simplified model to other similar ecosystems. The methods outlined in this paper are illustrated by a case study of a forest infested by tent caterpillars.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design,Modelling and Simulation,Software

Reference36 articles.

1. Baird, A.B. An Historical Account of the Forest Tent Caterpillar and of the Fall Webworm in North America Annual Report of the Entomological Society of Ontario vol. 47 1917 pp. 73-84

2. Effects of Weather on the Forest Tent Caterpillar Malacosoma disstria Hbn., in Central Canada in the Spring of 1953

3. Brown, A.W.A. Forest Tent Caterpillar in Ontario: 1931-1938 Annual Report of the Entomological Society of Ontario vol. 69 1938 pp. 37-42

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