Understanding How Cumulative Victimization Predicts Future Victimization Risk: Relevance of Cognitive Versus Social Mediation

Abstract

Cumulative victimization represents the summation of victimization experiences across multiple contexts, with greater accumulation generally predicting greater dysfunction than less accumulation of exposures. Past research has indicated that cumulative victimization predicts increased risk for future revictimization also. The dual systems model may help to understand this relationship. This framework comprises constructs of sensation-seeking and impulse control in developmental context. Deviant peer association may provide a social factor that helps to understand this relationship. Victimization has been found to influence all of these constructs identified here. It is predicted that increased accumulation of victimization experiences may drive variation in these constructs that results in elevated risk for revictimization. This study sought to test the theory that each of these three constructs independently mediated the cumulative victimization–revictimization relationship. The Pathways to Desistance data were used in analyses. This sample was comprised of 1,354 juvenile offenders followed for 7 years after a recent adjudication prior to baseline measurements. The first three waves of data were used in analyses. Generalized structural equation modeling was used to test for the relationships of interest. A bootstrapping process of computing standard errors was carried out to determine significance of mediation effects. Results indicated that increased cumulative victimization scores at baseline predicted increased probability of experiencing victimization at Wave 3. This relationship was attenuated by about 15% when all mediators were added to the model and the relationship remained significant. Further analyses indicated that the specific indirect effect running through deviant peer association was significant, as was the total indirect effect. Findings indicate that increases in cumulative victimization may result in increased affiliation with deviant peers that further increases their future victimization risk. Service providers for survivors of violence should focus on screening of social relationships of those they provide care for in order to assess safety concerns.