Monitoring Volatile Homicide Trends Across U.S. Cities

Abstract

While U.S. homicide rates remain at near historical lows, large percentage increases in homicide in 2015 have generated much speculation about its causes among policy makers, academics, criminal justice practitioners, media representatives, and other social commentators. In this article, we show how two data visualization tools, funnel charts, and time series fan charts can show the typical volatility in homicide rates in different cities over time. Many of the recent increases are not out of the norm given historical patterns, and so one need not rely on various ex ante hypotheses to explain homicide spikes occurring in many U.S. cities.