Understanding Variations in Murder Clearance Rates

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the political environment on murder clearance rates. The research strategy employed a multimethod research design, using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The quantitative approach uses Federal Bureau of Investigation reported data from the 59 largest cities from 1970 to 1999 to conduct a pooled time-series cross-sectional analysis of annual murder clearance rates. Regressing murder clearance rates on murder offense rate, total population of the city, state unemployment rate, police expenditures per 1000 city population, officers per 1000 residents, and a dummy variable for mayoral election year yields little discernible impact of political influence on murder clearance rates. However, in contrast to the quantitative modeling, the qualitative case study reveals a significant impact of the media, local political figures, and prosecuting attorneys on police practices and procedures, investigative decision making, and even fluctuations in murder clearance rates.