Systematic Econometric Comparisons: Exports of Manufactured Goods

Abstract

In the article we explain the basis of a series of comparisons of the explanations of the major macroeconomic variables in the UK economy which we are undertaking in a research project financed by HM Treasury. We seek to explain why it is that, despite the apparent objectivity of econometric method, modellers of the economy have published widely differing results. We illustrate our method with findings from the study of exports of manufactured goods, which present some clear examples of the difficulties encountered throughout the project. Full results will be available from the Institute.