Prospects for the UK Economy

Abstract

The performance of the UK economy has deteriorated markedly since autumn 2010. The volatility of output due to the adverse weather experienced last winter masks the underlying weakness in the UK economy. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) preliminary estimate of GDP suggests the underlying level of output has been flat since the third quarter of 2010. We expect the economy to grow from the second quarter of this year onwards, as we can see from figure 1, but we continue to expect this growth to be relatively weak. We expect GDP growth of 1.4 per cent per annum this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2012.