The fate of redundant cues in human predictive learning: The outcome ratio effect

Abstract

In four experiments, participants were shown a sequence of pairs of pictures of food and asked to predict whether each pair signalled an allergic reaction in a hypothetical patient. The pairs of pictures were used to present two simple discriminations that differed in their outcome ratio. A rich discrimination, 3AX+ BX−, involved three trials in which the compound of two foods, AX, was followed by a reaction, for every trial in which the compound BX was not followed by the outcome. A lean discrimination, CY+ 3DY− was based on the opposite outcome ratio. Upon the completion of this training, participants were asked to rate how likely an individual food would be followed by the allergic reaction. In each experiment, the rating for X was stronger than for Y. This outcome ratio effect poses a challenge for theories of learning that assume changes in associative strength are governed by a common error term, based on the significance of all the cues present on a trial. Instead, the results are consistent with the assumption that changes in associative strength are governed by an individual error term, based on the significance of a single cue.