Evaluating Public Responses to Environmental Trend Indicators

Abstract

Indicators of trends in environmental conditions have been touted as ways to inform the public and provide a “report card” on environmental agency performance, but no quantitative analysis of such claims has been done. A small study of New Jersey residents’ reactions to indicators as presented by the state environmental agency found that these indicators were deemed understandable, credible, and useful. However, actual comprehension was not related to perceived understanding, and many in this well-educated sample exhibited the ecological fallacy of inferring local environmental conditions or priority-setting uses that these indicators could not possibly provide. Prior beliefs about statewide trends in environmental quality, accuracy in extracting information from the indicator presentations, and demographic variables had varying but significant effects on reactions to and interpretations of the indicators. These findings have implications for preparation and evaluation of institutional communications about science in general.