Six-Month Survivorship Prediction in Spinal Metastatic Patients by Oncologists Shows Reliable Prognostication

Abstract

Study Design A retrospective analysis of oncologist-provided prognoses vs actual survival outcomes of patients referred with Metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) to a supra-regional multidisciplinary team (MDT). Objectives Prognostic scoring systems, such as the revised Tokuhashi, are commonly used to help guide the treatment of MSCC. However, scoring systems do not accommodate for the improved outcomes of contemporary cancer therapy. Oncologist-provided prognoses play an important role in real world rapid decision making. There is a paucity of evidence assessing the accuracy of the oncologist-provided prognosis. We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate this. Methods Data was captured between January 2015 and December 2018. Patients were split into 2 groups: Group 1 (prognosis estimated <6 months) and Group 2 (prognosis estimated >6 months). Median overall survival (mOS) and hazard ratio for death (HR) was assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess the accuracy of the oncologist’s prognosis. Results 829 patients were included. mOS in Group 1 was 5.8 months (95% CI 4.2-7.4 m), and in Group 2 mOS was not reached. Log rank test gave a Chi 2 of 131 ( P < .001). Cox regression analysis revealed a HR of .30 ( P < .001). Area under the ROC curve was 78%. Conclusions Oncologist-provided prognosis is accurate in this cohort of unselected, consecutive MSCC patients. It reduced reliance on scoring systems that can become outdated. Given the rapid progress in cancer treatment, the oncologist’s prognostic prediction is integral in efficient and effective MSCC management to help rapidly determine surgical candidacy.