Independent Prognostic Factors and Nomogram Prediction of Cancer-Specific Survival in Postoperative Patients With Spinal Cord Astrocytoma

Abstract

Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Objective Spinal cord astrocytoma (SCA) is a rare central nervous system malignancy that typically requires early surgical intervention. However, the substantial frequency of relapse and bad outcomes limit the surgical advantage for patients. Herein, we aimed to determine the independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in post-surgical patients with primary SCA and to develop a new method to estimate the chances of CSS in these patients at 3-, 5- and 10-year. Methods A total of 364 postoperative patients with SCA were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly assigned to the training and validation sets. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression assessments were used to identify independent prognostic indicators. Second, a nomogram was established by integrating these indicators to estimate 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS in patients with SCA who underwent surgery. Subsequently, the discriminatory power and predictive performance of the nomogram were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, a mortality risk stratification system was generated. Results Age, tumor stage, histological type, and radiotherapy were recognized as potential predictive indicators of CSS for postoperative patients with SCA. The ROC curve and DCA indicate that the nomogram has good accuracy and high clinical utility. Furthermore, the mortality risk stratification system efficiently divides patients into 3 risk subgroups. Conclusions The nomogram could accurately anticipate the 3-, 5-, and 10-year percentages of CSS in postoperative patients with SCA. It could assist clinicians with personalized medical counseling, risk stratification management, and clinical decision-making, improving the clinical outcomes of these patients.