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Dynamic Transmission Modeling

Published:2012-09 Issue:5 Volume:32 Page:712-721
ISSN:0272-989X
Container-title:Medical Decision Making
language:en
Short-container-title:Med Decis Making

Author:

Pitman Richard¹²³⁴⁵,Fisman David¹²³⁴⁵,Zaric Gregory S.¹²³⁴⁵,Postma Maarten¹²³⁴⁵,Kretzschmar Mirjam¹²³⁴⁵,Edmunds John¹²³⁴⁵,Brisson Marc¹²³⁴⁵

Affiliation:

1. Oxford Outcomes, Oxford, United Kingdom (RP)

2. Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (DF)

3. Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada (GSZ)

4. Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology and PharmacoEconomics, Department of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands (MP)

5. Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, and Center for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands (MK)

Abstract

The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen. Best practices for designing and building these models are set out in this paper.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Health Policy

Link

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0272989X12454578

Reference64 articles.

1. Modeling Good Research Practices—Overview

2. Conceptualizing a Model

3. State-Transition Modeling

4. Modeling Using Discrete Event Simulation

5. Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

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