Affiliation:
1. Toronto General Hospital, ES9 408, 200 Elizabeth Street, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2C4, Canada;
Abstract
Objective. To develop a natural history model for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to determine allocation of compensatory funds to Canadians who acquired HCV through the blood supply from 1986 through 1990. Methods. A Markov cohort simulation model for HCV prognosis was developed, using content experts, published data, posttransfusion look-back data, and a national survey. Results. The mortality rate in transfusees is high (46% at 10 years), although HCV-related deaths are rare. Only 14% develop-cirrhosis at 20 years (95% confidence interval, 0%–-44%), but 1 in 4 will eventually develop cirrhosis, and 1 in 8 will die of liver disease. Conclusions.This unique application of Markov cohort simulation and epidemiologic methods provides a state-of-the-art estimate ofHCVprognosis and has allowed compensation decisions to be based on the best available evidence.
Reference65 articles.
1. Estimates of the Cost-Effectiveness of a Single Course of Interferon-α2b in Patients with Histologically Mild Chronic Hepatitis C
2. 2. Wong JB. Interferon treatment for chronic hepatitis B or C infection: costs and effectiveness. Acta Gastro-Enterologica Belgica. 1998; 61:238–242.
3. Cost-Effectiveness of 6 and 12 Months of Interferon-α Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C
4. The cost effectiveness of alpha interferon in the treatment of chronic active hepatitis C
5. 5. Dusheiko GM, Roberts JA. Treatment of chronic type B and C hepatitis with interferon alfa: an economic appraisal. Hepatology. 1995;22:1863–1873.
Cited by
43 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献