A Nomogram to Predict the Overall Survival of Patients With Resected T1-2N0-1M0 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer and to Identify the Optimal Candidates for Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Stage IB or IIA Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Abstract

Background The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for IB/IIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients remains uncertain. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model to predict overall survival in resected NSCLC patients with T1-2N0-1M0 stage and identify optimal candidates for postoperative chemotherapy among those with stage IB or IIA disease. Methods We conducted a retrospective study using the SEER 18 database (2000–2018, November 2020 submission) of patients who underwent radical surgery for T1-2N0-1M0 NSCLC. The patients not receiving adjuvant chemotherapy were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. A prognostic nomogram was established and evaluated using calibration and receiver operating characteristic curves. Based on the nomogram, stage IB and IIA patients were categorized into two prognostic groups, each further divided into cohorts based on adjuvant chemotherapy status. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were used to compare overall survival between these groups. Results A total of 14 789 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 10 352) and validation cohort (n = 4437). Ten independent prognostic factors were identified and integrated into the prognostic model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .706, .699, and .705 in the training cohort, and .700, .698, and .695 in the validation cohort at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Among stage IB and IIA patients, only those in the high-risk group showed a significant benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy, with a 16.4% absolute increase in 5-year overall survival. Conclusions The nomogram developed in the study may help physicians choose the most appropriate management strategy for each patient.