Pitch-Tracking Metrics as a Predictor of Future Shoulder and Elbow Injuries in Major League Baseball Pitchers: A Machine-Learning and Game-Theory Based Analysis

Abstract

Background: Understanding interactions between multiple risk factors for shoulder and elbow injuries in Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers is important to identify potential avenues by which risk can be reduced while minimizing impact on player performance. Purpose: To apply a novel game theory–based approach to develop a machine-learning model predictive of next-season shoulder and elbow injuries in MLB pitchers and use this model to understand interdependencies and interaction effects between the most important risk factors. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Pitcher demographics, workload measures, pitch-tracking metrics, and injury data between 2017 and 2022 were used to construct a database of MLB pitcher-years, where each item in the database corresponded to a pitcher's information and metrics for that year. An extreme gradient boosting machine-learning model was trained to predict next-season shoulder and elbow injuries utilizing Shapley additive explanation values to quantify feature importance as well as interdependencies and interaction effects between predictive variables. Results: A total of 3808 pitcher-years were included in this analysis; 606 (15.9%) of these involved a shoulder or elbow injury resulting in placement on the MLB injured list. Of the >65 candidate features (including workload, demographic, and pitch-tracking metrics), the most important contributors to predicting shoulder/elbow injury were increased: pitch velocity (all pitch types), utilization of sliders (SLs), fastball (FB) spin rate, FB horizontal movement, and player age. The strongest game theory interaction effects were that higher FB velocity did not alter a younger pitcher's predicted risk of shoulder/elbow injury versus older pitchers, risk of shoulder/elbow injury increased with the number of high-velocity pitches thrown (regardless of pitch type and in an additive fashion), and FB velocity <95 mph (<152.9 kph) demonstrated strong negative interaction effects with higher SL percentage, suggesting that the overall predicted risk of injury for pitchers throwing a high number of SLs could be attenuated by lower FB velocity. Conclusion: Pitch-tracking metrics were substantially more predictive of future injury than player demographics and workload metrics. There were many significant game theory interdependencies of injury risk. Notably, the increased risk of injury that was conferred by throwing with a high velocity was even further magnified if the pitchers were also older, threw a high percentage of SLs, and/or threw a greater number of pitches.