The Impact of Globalization on Food and Agriculture: The Case of the Diet Convergence

Abstract

Globalization drives a process of diet convergence among developing and developed countries that challenges the predictions about future patterns of food consumption. To address this issue, the objective of this article is to map the range of the possible future diet changes and to explore their impact on agriculture using the Nexus Land-Use model. This model computes agricultural intensification in the crop and livestock sectors at the global scale, based on an architecture accounting for the different types of food calories. By considering four scenarios built on distinct assumptions regarding diet convergence, this article sheds light on the pivotal role of diet changes as drivers of tensions on agriculture and land use and shows the uncertainty associated with processes of diet convergence for foresight exercises on food and agriculture. Finally, the interactions between food production and the other land-use patterns are explored by testing the sensitivity of our results to assumptions regarding biofuel production, deforestation, potential crop yields, and nutrient-use efficiency.