Environmental Change in Conflict and Post-conflict Northern Uganda: A Geographical Analysis to Understand Prospects for Sustainable Peace and Development in the Region

Abstract

Armed conflicts are acknowledged for their effects on the environment, including ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, but also ecological restoration. Both processes impact post-conflict opportunities for peace and development. The armed conflict in Northern Uganda (1986–2008) profoundly affected local communities and their natural environment. While some areas suffered environmental degradation others underwent ecological restoration. Understanding this historical pattern is crucial for post-conflict natural resource management and peace and development prospects. This article aims to analyse vegetation changes in Northern Uganda during and after the conflict, exploring potential drivers of such changes and their implications for sustainable peace and development. Utilising remote sensing analysis and literature review, we observe a post-conflict ‘greening’ trend alongside a more equal vegetation deterioration and restoration spatial distribution. We propose that if these trends are driven by agriculture expansion, the way this is organised and articulated with natural vegetation will be central for peace and development.