Spatial Inequalities Among Urban Probation Populations: Supervision, Safety, and Ecological Considerations

Abstract

This study presents findings of the first empirical analysis of the spatial distribution of probation populations and ecological implications. The study analyzes closed cases in the Adult Probation Department of Cook County, Illinois, between 2011 and 2016. Analyses examine the spatial distribution of individuals on probation across Chicago neighborhoods and the association between neighborhood probationer concentration rates and violent crime rates over time. The results confirm that probation populations are not randomly distributed but rather hyper-concentrated in a handful of neighborhoods. Changes in the neighborhood concentration of individuals on probation over time are predictive of fluctuations in neighborhood violent crime rates. The paper discusses the implications of the durability of spatial patterns observed in neighborhood probationer concentration rates and implications for neighborhood safety.