Convergence Dynamics of Robbery Rates in Mexico

Abstract

This work presents a time-series convergence (divergence) analysis for robbery rates in Mexico. Two distinctive features, in relation to previous studies, can be identified: first, the use of an autoregressive vector to better estimate the series dynamic compared with single-equation models, and second, the implementation of an escalation/de-escalation analysis is done using two variants of the same crime—high- and low-impact robberies. Our results suggest that modifications to the national security policy in Mexico have a direct—and rapid—effect on robbery crime trends. Moreover, the three phases of the dynamics between the rates coincide with the three major national security policies implemented in recent years: (a) 1997 to 2006, (b) 2007 to 2011, and (c) 2012 to 2018.