The Temporal (In)Stability of Violent Crime Hot Spots Between Months and The Modifiable Temporal Unit Problem

Abstract

Research on the concentration and stability of crime patterns at micro-places primarily examines years as the temporal unit of observation. This study examines temporal patterns between months to explore the impact of the modifiable temporal unit problem (MTUP). We analyzed 26,555 violent crime incidents reported to the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department from a 60-month observation period and geocoded these incidents to 14,106 street segments. Street segments with crime experienced these incidents across a small number of months and there is much variability in which locations are hot spots between months. Only a small number of street segments experienced a seasonal pattern between months with most locations having complete instability or unpredictability in the months when crime does occur.