Effect of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of China

Author:

Jebran Khalil1,Iqbal Amjad2,Bhat Kalim-Ullah1,Ali Arshad3

Affiliation:

1. School of Accounting, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, China.

2. Center for Management and Commerce, University of Swat, Pakistan.

3. Department of Management Studies, University of Malakand, Pakistan.

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of terms of trade (TOT) on the economic growth of China over the period 1980–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), pp. 289–326) is applied for examining the short-run and long-run associations. The causality analysis between variables is analyzed by using Granger causality test and variance decomposition test. The ARDL model reveals that TOT significantly and adversely affect economic growth in the short run as well as in the long run. The results also imply positive short-run and long-run effect of labor and capital on the economic growth of China. The Granger causality results reveal significant bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and capital, and between capital and labor force. The results show unidirectional causality from TOT to labor force. The variance decomposition results show that most of the innovation in economic growth is explained by its own innovation, while other variables have very small contributions to its innovations. The notable findings of the study suggest that TOT deterioration is relatively important for enhancing the economic growth of China.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Cited by 8 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3