The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models

Abstract

This article reviews the historical development of statistical weather models, from simple analyses of runs of consecutive rainy and dry days at single sites, through to multisite models of daily precipitation. Weather generators have been used extensively in water engineering design and in agricultural, ecosystem and hydrological impact studies as a means of in-filling missing data or for producing indefinitely long synthetic weather series from finite station records. We begin by describing the statistical properties of the rainfall occurrence and amount processes which are necessary precursors to the simulation of other (dependent) meteorological variables. The relationship between these daily weather models and lower-frequency variations in climate statistics is considered next, noting that conventional weather generator techniques often fail to capture wholly interannual variability. Possible solutions to this deficiency - such as the use of mixtures of slowly and rapidly varying conditioning variables - are discussed. Common applications of weather generators are then described. These include the modelling of climate-sensitive systems, the simulation of missing weather data and statistical downscaling of regional climate change scenarios. Finally, we conclude by considering ongoing advances in the simulation of spatially correlated weather series at multiple sites, the downscaling of interannual climate variability and the scope for using nonparametric techniques to synthesize weather series.