On the effect of natural resources on interstate war

Abstract

Many analysts expect that a decline in natural resources and a rise in resource demand will increase the risk of interstate war in the coming decades. Other researchers reject this expectation. Empirical examinations are mostly qualitative case studies, and the few statistical models center primarily on waters. We argue changing resource levels can provide either an incentive or a disincentive for countries to go to war. The net effects by resource are empirical issues. We offer statistical models for a large sample, including several types of renewable and non-renewable resources, and other variables. We find that resource changes impact interstate war, and the magnitude of their impacts is on par with that of non-resource forces, and the effects of one time resource changes linger. The paper examines implications for the coming decades in light of the United States’ National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 outlook.