The impact of changes in Russian log export tariffs on China's log imports

Abstract

Russia is a major log supplier to China, and in order to control log exports, Russia has adjusted its log export tariffs. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in Russian log export tariffs on China's log imports using a gravity model based on China-Russia log trade data from 2003 to 2022. The conclusions show that the difference in forest resource endowment between the two countries promotes China's log imports, while the distance between China and Russia and Russia's log export tariffs harm China's log imports, and the effect of export tariffs is significant. The further research shows that the suppression effect of the changes in Russian log tariffs on China's log imports is very significant in the short term, but relatively weak in the long term. Based on the above conclusions, this paper recommends some policies from both short-term and long-term perspectives.