Is the European Monetary System converging to integration?

Abstract

The emerging system at the European level can be conceptualized as a pattern of relations among member states that tends to be reproduced despite disturbances in individual trajectories. The Markov property is used as an indicator of systemness in the distribution. The individual trajectories of nations participating in the European Monetary System are assessed using an information theoretical model that is consistent with the Markov property in the multivariate case. Economic and monetary integration are analysed using independent data sets. Increasing integration can be retrieved in both of these dimensions, notably since the currency crises of 1992 and 1993. However, the dynamics for countries which have strongly coupled their currency to the German Mark are different from those which did not. Additionally, developments in inflation and exchange rates at the European level are assessed in relation to global developments.