The Efficacy of Pretreatment 18F-FDG PET-CT-Based Deep Learning Network Structure to Predict Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Abstract

Background: Previous studies have shown that the 5-year survival rates of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) were still not ideal despite great improvement in NPC treatments. To achieve individualized treatment of NPC, we have been looking for novel models to predict the prognosis of patients with NPC. The objective of this study was to use a novel deep learning network structural model to predict the prognosis of patients with NPC and to compare it with the traditional PET-CT model combining metabolic parameters and clinical factors. Methods: A total of 173 patients were admitted to 2 institutions between July 2014 and April 2020 for the retrospective study; each received a PET-CT scan before treatment. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was employed to select some features, including SUVpeak-P, T3, age, stage II, MTV-P, N1, stage III and pathological type, which were associated with overall survival (OS) of patients. We constructed 2 survival prediction models: an improved optimized adaptive multimodal task (a 3D Coordinate Attention Convolutional Autoencoder and an uncertainty-based jointly Optimizing Cox Model, CACA-UOCM for short) and a clinical model. The predictive power of these models was assessed using the Harrell Consistency Index (C index). Overall survival of patients with NPC was compared by Kaplan–Meier and Log-rank tests. Results: The results showed that CACA-UOCM model could estimate OS (C index, 0.779 for training, 0.774 for validation, and 0.819 for testing) and divide patients into low and high mortality risk groups, which were significantly associated with OS ( P < .001). However, the C-index of the model based only on clinical variables was only 0.42. Conclusions: The deep learning network model based on 18F-FDG PET/CT can serve as a reliable and powerful predictive tool for NPC and provide therapeutic strategies for individual treatment.