The Corroboration Role of Management Earnings Forecasts in Private Loan Markets

Abstract

Management earnings forecasts (MEFs) may reduce information risk by corroborating the inferences that lenders draw from their private communication with borrowers. Consistent with this idea, we find that among firms with a general policy of issuing MEFs, those providing MEFs in the 6 months before loan origination with a forecast horizon beyond the origination date enjoy lower loan spreads. The frequency and precision of MEFs are also negatively associated with loan spreads. The associations are stronger when lenders’ need for corroboration of their private information is expected to be greater. The associations are not driven by a firm’s general information environment, signaling of managerial ability, opportunistic disclosure, or competition between public and private debt markets. Moreover, the issuance, frequency, and precision of MEFs are associated with loan amounts more spread out among participating lenders, suggesting that MEFs also reduce information asymmetry within a loan syndicate. Our study provides insight into the corroboration role of publicly disseminated MEFs in private loan markets.