Social Upheaval and Fertility Decline

Abstract

One theme in demographic theory is that, as society changes, human fertility levels remain high because of the continuing influence of outdated “props”to maintain existing levels of fertility. A corollary is that social upheavals might change these conditions, thus leading to a fall in fertility. This article examines thirteen social crises for which there are adequate demographic data ranging from the seventeenth-century English Civil War to the fall of communism in Eastern Europe in the late twentieth century. All show marked falls in fertility arising from deferred female marriage, declining marital fertility, or both. The evidence is weak that this change constituted an adjustment of fertility to immediately preceding social conditions but stronger that there was a temporary adjustment to a new period of uncertainty about the future and a continuing adjustment to new socioeconomic and legislative conditions.