The Spiral of Silence in the 1948 Presidential Election

Abstract

Noelle-Neumann's spiral of silence is tested with data from the 1948 Elmira election study. Results indicate that support for the theory and trends in the data are consistent with expectations for the spiral of silence as an additional explanation for the famous election misprediction. Statistical tests affirm Noelle-Neumann's suggestion that social isolation is associated with fear of isolation and provide partial support for the idea that social isolation interacts with fear of isolation in the spiral of silence effect.