The Use of Ordinal Time-Series Analysis In Assessing Policy Inputs and Impacts

Abstract

In recent years, analysts have relied more heavily on time-series methodologies to evaluate the effects of public policies. This article describes ordinal time-series analysis (OTSA), a technique originally developed to analyze the behavior of business firms. OTSA is a descriptive tool. Its advantages are that it uses ordinal data and eliminates the need for selecting appropriate discount factors. The use of OTSA in public policy analysis is illustrated through an assessment of the relationship between social welfare expenditures and infant mortality rates at state, regional, and national levels.