Prognosis of Survival in a Geriatric Population

Abstract

With the aim of demonstrating prognostics as regards death in a geriatric population, the mortality among 1486 patients (516 men and 970 women) in De Gamles By, Copenhagen, was observed over a 2-year period. The mortality curves for the groups examined were found to be rectilinear in logarithmic form and could therefore be described with sufficient certainty by one value, viz. the probability of death in any one year. The probability of death was just over 20% and was the same for both sexes. Of the parameters examined, particularly high mortality was found where there was urinary incontinence, severe mental abnormality, a great need for nursing, and poor physical mobility (especially inability to walk). On the other hand, there was no particular relationship with age. Where the degree of the handicapping factors was severe, there was generally greater mortality among the men than among the women, but this was not so in the less severe cases. The length of stay in the institution had no effect on the mortality. The results of the present study are in good agreement with previous findings reported from New York (7).