How Should We Study Foreign Policy Change?

Abstract

Freed from the shackles imposed by the Cold War, many states have chosen to make radical changes in their foreign policy orientations. This trend is reflected within Foreign Policy Analysis, where the study of change appears to be moving towards the top of the research agenda. In this article, six different models of foreign policy change are examined. After concluding that these contributions contain both promising ideas and analytical pitfalls, I present a model of my own, arguing that this constitutes a more promising route to the study of foreign policy change. In short, I argue that theoretical efforts in this field should focus on the simultaneous occurrence of changes in fundamental structural conditions, strategic political leadership, and the presence of a crisis of some kind. Though the existing models pay attention to some of these elements, none is designed to include all three.