Goal Side Selection of Penalty Shots in Soccer: A Laboratory Study and Analyses of Men’s World Cup Shoot-Outs

Abstract

Penalty kicks in soccer provide a unique scenario in which to examine human choice behavior under competitive conditions. Here, we report two studies examining the tendency for soccer kickers to select the goal side with the largest area to the left or right of the goalkeeper’s veridical midline, when the goalkeeper stands marginally off-center. In Study I participants viewed realistic images of a soccer goal and goalkeeper with instructions to choose the left or right side of the goalmouth to best score a goal. We systematically displaced the goalkeeper’s position along the goal line; and, to simulate changes in the kicker’s viewing position, we systematically displaced the lateral position of the goalmouth in each image. While, overall, participants tended to choose the left over the right goal side, this preference was modulated by the goalkeeper’s position relative to the center of the goal and jointly on the lateral position of the goalmouth relative to the participants’ body midline. In Study II we analyzed 100 penalty shots from men’s world cup shoot-outs between the years 1982 to 2018. Again, we found a small tendency for kickers to aim the ball to the left goal side, but with barely any modulating effect of changes in the goalkeeper’s position and no effect of changes in the kicker’s position. In contrast to earlier claims that a goalkeeper may benefit by standing marginally to the left or right of the center of the goal to influence the direction of the kicker’s shot, our findings suggest that this is probably not a good strategy in elite football competitions.