Earth in practice: Uncertainty, expertise and the expected Istanbul earthquake

Abstract

In 1999, two devastating earthquakes occurred in Northwestern Turkey, which claimed around 18,000 lives. Since the disaster, many scientific studies and projects, both international and national, have been conducted, concluding that another earthquake at the magnitude of at least six will hit Istanbul. Even though there is a consensus among scientists that an earthquake will happen in Istanbul, there is a plethora of different theories and arguments about the anticipated earthquake. This paper is an historical account of how different technoscientific practices have enacted different North Anatolian Faults stretching across Anatolia and Marmara Sea. The multiplicity of the fault does not emerge as an epistemic problem of having different perspectives, but it is an ontological question of how plural realities are being made in different scientific practices. We argue that scientific uncertainties emerge when these different faults do not fit together in technoscientific circles and across public venues.