Interaction among geopolitical risk, trade openness, economic growth, carbon emissions and Its implication on climate change in india

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether geopolitical risk influences environmental degradation, while controlling for non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness, using a quarterly dataset from 1985Q1 to 2019Q4. The choice of India as a case study is based on a number of reasons. India is a developing country, which produces approximately 3.2% of global GDP. Also, India produces almost 17.7% of the world population. The country also emits about 6.8% of global carbon emissions, and according to the 2020 report of the consulting firm Eurasia, India is ranked fifth in terms of geopolitical risk. This study adds to the existing literature by using the quantile-on-quantile (QQR) regression to examine the effect of geopolitical risk on environmental degradation, as well as highlighting the implications of geopolitical risk on environmental sustainability. Based on empirical estimation, we find that geopolitical risk increases and decreases carbon emissions in India. That is, geopolitical risk increases environmental degradation at middle quantiles and decreases environmental degradation at lower and higher quantiles. In addition, we find that non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness impede environmental quality in India. Thus, we are of the opinion that policymakers, when making policy decisions on environmental quality, should factor in geopolitical risk in two areas, mitigation and channel of escalation, among other policy suggestions.