How can we make an orderly transition away from fossil fuels? A global tour of modern energy

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic, social and political three-dimensional driving effects of new energy substitution for fossil energy under the joint action of market, government and international competition from three perspectives: profit motive, mutual benefit and responsibility motive, combined with the relevant data of 78 countries from 1965 to 2021. The results show that fossil energy prices and energy security positively influence the process of new energy substitution, and environmental pollution negatively affects the process of new energy substitution, and the pushback effect of energy security on new energy substitution is more significant in the study interval, indicating that at the beginning of the new energy revolution, global environmental governance and willingness to reduce emissions drive the development of new energy industry, but the “carbon emission reduction” of each country has increased the complexity of new energy substitution, especially in some developed countries in taking responsibility for global environmental governance divergent views. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that each country’s energy strategy affects the degree of substitution of “quality” and “quantity” of new energy, and the speed, areas and corrective ability of new energy development vary among countries under different strategic choices.