Predicting recurrent interventions after radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation with machine learning and the PREDICT-AVF web app

Abstract

Objective: Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) guidelines discourage ongoing access salvage attempts after two interventions prior to successful use or more than three interventions per year overall. The goal was to develop a tool for prediction of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF) intervention requirements to help guide shared decision-making about access appropriateness. Methods: Prospective cohort study of 914 adult patients in the United States and Canada undergoing radiocephalic AVF creation at one of the 39 centers participating in the PATENCY-1 or -2 trials. Clinical data, including demographics, comorbidities, access history, anatomic features, and post-operative ultrasound measurements at 4–6 and 12 weeks were used to predict recurrent interventions required at 1 year postoperatively. Cox proportional hazards, random survival forest, pooled logistic, and elastic net recurrent event survival prediction models were built using a combination of baseline characteristics and post-operative ultrasound measurements. A web application was created, which generates patient-specific predictions contextualized with the KDOQI guidelines. Results: Patients underwent an estimated 1.04 (95% CI 0.94–1.13) interventions in the first year. Mean (SD) age was 57 (13) years; 22% were female. Radiocephalic AVFs were created at the snuffbox (2%), wrist (74%), or proximal forearm (24%). Using baseline characteristics, the random survival forest model performed best, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67–0.82) at 1 year. The addition of ultrasound information to baseline characteristics did not substantially improve performance; however, Cox models using either 4–6- or 12-week post-operative ultrasound information alone had the best discrimination performance, with AUROCs of 0.77 (0.70–0.85) and 0.76 (0.70–0.83) at 1 year. The interactive web application is deployed at https://predict-avf.com . Conclusions: The PREDICT-AVF web application can guide patient counseling and guideline-concordant shared decision-making as part of a patient-centered end-stage kidney disease life plan.