Against Dictatorship, against Backsliding? Examining the Effect of Serbian Anti-Government Protests on the 2020 Electoral Boycott

Abstract

The power of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has been steadily growing ever since 2012. The party has successfully taken control of all levels of government in Serbia, and the country has suffered from gradual democratic backsliding as a result. In this article, we focus on two protest waves in Serbia between 2017 and 2019. Crucially, a number of opposition parties involved in the more recent protest wave boycotted the 2020 parliamentary election. This article analyzes the characteristics of the citizen-led response in local communities across Serbia and estimates its electoral impact using a difference-in-differences approach. The case of Serbia not only elucidates modes of citizen response and their impact in post-Communist Europe but also provides comparative insights for the potential for citizen-led resistance to mobilize against backsliding in other countries. The objectives of the article are twofold. First, the article uses an original data set of Serbian protest events between 2017 and 2019 to ascertain how the two protest waves were conducted, and how citizens respond to democratic backsliding. Second, using data on municipal-level turnout and SNS vote share in the 2020 parliamentary election, we examine the average electoral impact of protest and, related to that, we evaluate the success of opposition parties in mobilizing voters for the electoral boycott. The article investigates whether SNS-led democratic backsliding is resilient to sustained citizen-led mobilization or whether this bottom-up resistance challenges the notion that “stabilitocracies” such as Serbia are immune to fundamental political change.