How do situational variables, related to shooting, in elite Gaelic football impact shot success?

Abstract

Analysis of 3926 shots from the 2019 Senior inter-county football championship aims to establish the impact of distance, angle, shot type, method and pressure on shot success. Findings demonstrate that shots from free kicks contribute 20.5% of the total attempts in Gaelic football, with a success rate of 75%, in contrast to 50% success of shots from open play. Moreover, the range from which free kick success is >57.6% accuracy extends to 40 m, while from open play this is passed at a range of 28 m. There were almost twice as many right foot shots (64.4%) compared with the left foot (32.4%), with right foot attempts marginally more accurate. Shots under low pressure were most successful, while those under medium pressure were less successful than those under high pressure, albeit taken from an average distance of 7.5 m closer to the target. A logistic regression model to explore the impact of all variables on shot outcome demonstrates the significance of shot distance, angle and pressure on the kicker, as well as whether shots are taken with the hand or foot. This research provides an important step in understanding the scale of the impact of a range of variables on shot success in Gaelic football while simultaneously providing an initial model to predict the shot outcome based on these variables.