Career patterns in German football youth national teams – A longitudinal study

Abstract

The aim of this study was to identify career patterns in German youth national teams and investigate differences between the patterns in relative age effect and transition rate to professional senior football. Also, player transitions between age group levels were traced to identify squad politics of German Football Association. We examined all 636 youth national team players born between 1987 and 1994, who represented Germany between U16 and U21, as well as all senior national team players born in those age groups. We identified eight typical career types. It was found that youth national team careers lasting one or two years make up 60.5%, which shows a high fluctuation between age groups. Moreover, early and short youth national team careers mostly do not end in a professional career, while late and long youth national team careers more likely lead to a successful career in senior football. Regarding relative age effect, it could be shown that its effect size is highest the younger the age of the player is. Predominantly short careers and a high fluctuation between age groups evidence a short-term strategy in talent development by German Football Association selecting the momentary best players instead of searching for prospects.