Assessing changes in availability of land and water for food (1960–2050)

Abstract

Future global food demand will require more land and water. We group the global population into six “Gross Domestic Product groups” and study changes in the availability of land and water for food in relation to demographic and nutrition transition theories. We show large differences in land and water availability between rich and poor countries. Inequality will strongly increase due to the projected large population growth in poor countries. By 2050, the richest quarter of the global population will have three times more arable land per person than the rest. Those changing diets to a more affluent consumption will be the ones with less available resources per person. More than two-thirds of global population will not have enough land to produce the food for an affluent diet by 2050. Thus, the large land and water constraints of the poor will result in significant challenges for food security than predicted in previous studies.