Collective decision strategies in the presence of spatio-temporal correlations

Abstract

Background: Models of collective decision-making typically assume that individuals sample information independently and decide instantaneously. In most natural and sociological settings, however, decisions occur over some timescale in which group members gather information—often from multiple sources. Information sources may persist for varying lengths of time or be viewed concurrently and identically by multiple group members. These tendencies introduce spatio-temporal correlations in gathered information with poorly understood consequences.Research Design: Here, we develop a collective decision-making model in which individuals’ access and switch between two conflicting cues that differ in their spatio-temporal properties.Results: Our model reveals that spatially and temporally correlated cues can profoundly affect collective decisions. Specifically, we observe that spatially correlated cues are dominant when individuals rarely switch between sources of information. Temporally correlated cues, on the other hand, have the strongest impact when individuals frequently switch between information sources. We also discuss how much the usage of independent information must be increased to counter the impact of correlation.Conclusions: The present model represents a first step toward more accurately capturing the complex mechanisms underlying collective decision-making in natural systems and reveals multiple ways in which the properties of environmental cues can impact collective behavior.